Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Bas J. van Ruijven  Marc A. Levy  Arun Agrawal  Frank Biermann  Joern Birkmann  Timothy R. Carter  Kristie L. Ebi  Matthias Garschagen  Bryan Jones  Roger Jones  Eric Kemp-Benedict  Marcel Kok  Kasper Kok  Maria Carmen Lemos  Paul L. Lucas  Ben Orlove  Shonali Pachauri  Tom M. Parris  Anand Patwardhan  Arthur Petersen  Benjamin L. Preston  Jesse Ribot  Dale S. Rothman  Vanessa J. Schweizer 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):481-494

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.  相似文献   

Storm track response to ocean fronts in a global high-resolution climate model   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

R. Justin Small  Robert A. Tomas  Frank O. Bryan 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(3-4):805-828

Synoptic atmospheric eddies are affected by lower tropospheric air-temperature gradients and by turbulent heat fluxes from the surface. In this study we examine how ocean fronts affect these quantities and hence the storm tracks. We focus on two midlatitude regions where ocean fronts lie close to the storm tracks: the north-west Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. An atmospheric climate model of reasonably high resolution (~50 km) is applied in a climate-length (60 year) simulation in order to obtain stable statistics. Simulations with frontal structure in the sea surface temperature (SST) in one of the regions are compared against simulations with globally smoothed SST. We show that in both regions the ocean fronts have a strong influence on the transient eddy heat and moisture fluxes, not just in the boundary layer, but also in the free troposphere. Local differences in these quantities between the simulations reach 20–40 % of the maximum values in the simulation with smoothed SST. Averaged over the entire region of the storm track over the ocean the corresponding differences are 10–20 %. The effect on the transient eddy meridional wind variance is strong in the boundary layer but relatively weak above that. The potential mechanisms by which the ocean fronts influence the storm tracks are discussed, and our results are compared against previous studies with regional models, Aquaplanet models, and coarse resolution coupled models.  相似文献   

Present and projected degree days in China from observation,reanalysis and simulations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Qinglong You  Klaus Fraedrich  Frank Sielmann  Jinzhong Min  Shichang Kang  Zhenming Ji  Xiuhua Zhu  Guoyu Ren 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(5-6):1449-1462

Degree days are usually defined as the accumulated daily mean temperature varying with the base temperature, and are one of the most important indicators of climate changes. In this study, the present-day and projected changes of four degree days indices from daily mean surface air temperature output simulated by Max Planck Institute, Earth Systems Model of low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) model are evaluated with the high resolution gridded-observation dataset and two modern reanalyses in China. During 1979–2005, the heating degree days (HDD) and the numbers of HDD (NHDD) have decreased for observation, reanalyses (ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR) and model simulations (historical and decadal experiments), consistent with the increasing cooling degree days (CDD) and the numbers of CDD (NCDD). These changes reflect the general warming in China during the past decades. In most cases, ERA-Interim is closer to observation than NCEP/NCAR and model simulations. There are discrepancies between observation, reanalyses and model simulations in the spatial patterns and regional means. The decadal hindcast/forecast simulation performance of MPI-ESM-LR produce warmer than the observed mean temperature in China during the entire period, and the hindcasts forecast a trend lower than the observed. Under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios, HDD and NHDD show significant decreases, and CDD and NCDD consistently increase during 2006–2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, especially before the mid-21 century. More pronounced changes occur under RCP8.5, which is associated with a high rate of radiative forcing. The 20th century runs reflect the sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the uncertainties in terms of the inter-ensemble are small, whereas the long-term trend is well represented with no differences among ensembles.  相似文献   

Overstepping the garnet isograd: a comparison of QuiG barometry and thermodynamic modeling     

Frank?S.?SpearEmail author  Jay?B.?Thomas  Benjamin?W.?Hallett 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(3):1059

The consequences of overstepping the garnet isograd reaction have been investigated by comparing the composition of garnet formed at overstepped P–T conditions (the overstep or “OS” model) with the P–T conditions that would be inferred by assuming garnet nucleated in equilibrium with the matrix assemblage at the isograd (the equilibrium or “EQ” model). The garnet nucleus composition formed at overstepped conditions is calculated as the composition that produces the maximum decrease in Gibbs free energy from the equilibrated, garnet-absent, matrix assemblage for the bulk composition under study. Isopleths were then calculated for this garnet nucleus composition assuming equilibrium with the matrix assemblage (the EQ model). Comparison of the actual P–T conditions of nucleation (the OS model) with those inferred from the EQ model reveals considerable discrepancy between the two. In general, the inferred garnet nucleation P–T conditions (the EQ model) are at a lower temperature and higher or lower pressure (depending on the coexisting calcic phase(s)) than the actual (OS model) nucleation conditions. Moreover, the degree of discrepancy increases with the degree of overstepping. Independent estimates of the pressure of nucleation of garnet were made using the Raman shift of quartz inclusions in garnet (quartz-in-garnet or QuiG barometry). To test the validity of this method, an experimental synthesis of garnet containing quartz inclusions was made at 800 °C, 20 kbar, and the measured Raman shift reproduced the synthesis conditions to within 120 bars. Raman band shifts from three natural samples were then used to calculate an isochore along which garnet was presumed to have nucleated. Model calculations were made at several temperatures along this isochore (the OS model), and these P–T conditions were compared to those computed assuming equilibrium nucleation (the EQ model) to estimate the degree of overstepping displayed by these samples. A sample from the garnet isograd in eastern Vermont is consistent with overstepping of around 10 degrees and 0.6 kbar (affinities of around 2 kJ/mole garnet). A sample from the staurolite–kyanite zone in the same terrane requires overstepping of around 50 °C and 2–5 kbar (affinities of around 10–18 kJ/mole garnet). A similar amount of overstepping was inferred for a blueschist sample from Sifnos, Greece. These results indicate that overstepping of garnet nucleation reactions may be common and pronounced in regionally metamorphosed terranes, and that the P–T conditions and paths inferred from garnet zoning studies may be egregiously in error.  相似文献   

Evaluation of an environment-recruitment model for capelin (Mallotus villosus)     

Carscadden  J. E.; Frank  K. T.; Leggett  W. C. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2000,57(2):412-418

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Analysis of the August 7, 1972 white light flare: Light curves and correlation with hard X-rays     

David M. Rust  Frank Hegwer 《Solar physics》1975,40(1):141-157

Cinematic, photometric observations of the 3B flare of August 7, 1972 are described in detail. The time resolution was 2 s; the spatial resolution was 1–2″. Flare continuum emissivity at 4950 Å and at 5900 Å correlated closely in time with the 60–100 keV non-thermal X-ray burst intensity. The observed peak emissivity was 1.5 × 10¹⁰ erg cm^?2 s^?1 and the total flare energy in the 3900–6900 Å range was ～10³⁰ erg. From the close temporal correspondence and from the small distance (3″) separating the layers where the visible emission and the X-rays arose, it is argued that the hard X-ray source must have had the same silhouette as the white light flare and that the emission patches had cross-sections of 3–5″. There was also a correlation between the location of the most intense visible emissions near sunspots and the intensity and polarization of the 9.4 GHz radio emission. The flare appeared to show at least three distinct particle acceleration phases: one, occurring at a stationary source and associated with proton acceleration gave a very bluish continuum and reached peak intensity at ～ 1522 UT. At 1523 UT, a faint wave spread out at 40 km s^?1 from flare center. The spectrum of the wave was nearly flat in the range 4950–5900 Å. Association of the wave with a slow drift of the microwave emission peak to lower frequencies and with a softening of the X-ray spectrum is interpreted to mean that the particle acceleration process weakened while the region of acceleration expanded. The observations are interpreted with the aid of the flare models of Brown to mean that the same beam of non-thermal electrons that was responsible for the hard X-ray bremsstrahlung also caused the heating of the lower chromosphere that produced the white light flare.  相似文献   

‘PALEOVAN’, International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP): site survey results and perspectives     

Thomas Litt  Sebastian Krastel  Michael Sturm  Rolf Kipfer  Sefer Örcen  Georg Heumann  Sven Oliver Franz  Umut B. Ülgen  Frank Niessen 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(15-16):1555-1567

Lake Van is the fourth largest terminal lake in the world (volume 607 km³, area 3570 km², maximum depth 460 m), extending for 130 km WSW–ENE on the Eastern Anatolian High Plateau, Turkey. The sedimentary record of Lake Van, partly laminated, has the potential to obtain a long and continuous continental sequence that covers several glacial–interglacial cycles (ca 500 kyr). Therefore, Lake Van is a key site within the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) for the investigation of the Quaternary climate evolution in the Near East (‘PALEOVAN’). As preparation for an ICDP drilling campaign, a site survey was carried out during the past years. We collected 50 seismic profiles with a total length of ～850 km to identify continuous undisturbed sedimentary sequences for potential ICDP locations. Based on the seismic results, we cored 10 different locations to water depths of up to 420 m. Multidisciplinary scientific work at positions of a proposed ICDP drill site included measurements of magnetic susceptibility, physical properties, stable isotopes, XRF scans, and pollen and spores. This core extends back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a more extended record than all the other Lake Van cores obtained to date. Both coring and seismic data do not show any indication that the deepest part of the lake (Tatvan Basin, Ahlat Ridge) was dry or almost dry during past times. These results show potential for obtaining a continuous undisturbed, long continental palaeoclimate record. In addition, this paper discusses the potential of ‘PALEOVAN’ to establish new results on the dynamics of lake level fluctuations, noble gas concentration in pore water of the lake sediment, history of volcanism and volcanic activities based on tephrostratigraphy, and paleoseismic and earthquake activities.  相似文献   

The international legal framework for marine spatial planning   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Frank Maes   《Marine Policy》2008,32(5):797

Increasing demand for ocean resources, both living and non-living, have already lead to loss of biodiversity, habitat depletion and irreversible damage to the marine environment. Furthermore, introduction of new kinds of sea uses, spatial extension of ongoing sea uses and the need to better protect and conserve the marine biological diversity will result in increasing conflicts among the various users, as well as between the users and the environment. Marine spatial planning as a process to allocate space for specific uses can help to avoid user conflicts, to improve the management of marine spatial claims, and to sustain an ecosystem-based management of ocean and seas. This article explores the rights and duties towards exploitation and protection of the marine environment under the jurisdiction of coastal states as reflected in two important global conventions, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Convention on Biological Diversity. Both Conventions provide the main legal framework for marine spatial planning that have to be taken into account in planning at the regional and national level.  相似文献   

Subsurface deformations in a layered elastic half-space     

Frank Roth 《Geophysical Journal International》1990,103(1):147-155

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Erratum to Kevin Telmer, Graeme F. Bonham-Carter, Deborah A. Kliza, and Gwendy E. M. Hall (2004) “The atmospheric transport and deposition of smelter emissions: Evidence from the multi-element geochemistry of snow, Quebec, Canada”, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 68, 2961-2980     

Frank A. Podosek 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(23):5629-5631

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